Apple’s Tablet: The Next iPod… Or The Next Newton?

Rumors that Apple is preparing to introduce a tablet device have been around for almost as long as there were rumors that it would introduce a cell phone (and look how that turned out). This week, no less a bastion of salmon-colored credibility than the Financial Times exclaimed that “Apple is racing to offer a portable tablet-sized computer in time for the Christmas shopping season,” so perhaps this year Santa will finally make those rumors a reality. I worry, however, that Apple might not be quite as successful as it’s been with the iPod and iPhone – I’m sure they’ll make a beautiful device, but what if consumers just don’t care?

Device manufacturers (both incumbents in the computer industry and niche players) have been toying with the “tablet” category and others like it for years, but the segment remains sparsely populated and sales have never been very high. So-called “Ultra-Mobile PCs” were aimed at roughly the product category Apple appears to be targeting (something shoehorned in between a laptop and a portable media player like an iPod), and the category received substantial investment from Microsoft through its Origami platform, but the products haven’t gained any traction. The high prices and usability problems that have plagued these devices have undoubtedly been an obstacle, but I think misalignment with consumers’ jobs-to-be-done is an issue here as well.

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